Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands; System will doubtless be ‘Fred’ | The Climate Channel – Article by The Climate Channel

  • A fault in the Windward Islands will be monitored for development.
  • This system is likely to become a tropical storm when it reaches the eastern Caribbean.
  • It will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Caribbean regardless of how it develops.

Tropical storm clocks and warnings have been issued in parts of the Caribbean for what could become Tropical Storm Fred, with the risk of flood rain and some wind exposure for the next few days and an uncertain future for Florida this weekend.

Tropical storm warnings were issued late Monday evening for Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and much of the coastline of the Dominican Republic coast, where tropical storm conditions (wind speeds of at least 60 km / h) were expected for the next 24-36 hours.

Tropical storm clocks are in effect in Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Saba, and St. Eustatius, as well as part of the north coast of Hispaniola.

This means that tropical storm conditions (wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour) are possible in these areas.

On Monday afternoon, the NHC described a low pressure system that spreads showers and thunderstorms in the Lesser Antilles “Potential Tropical Cyclone Six”, although it is not yet a low pressure or storm and there is no closed low pressure cycle on the surface.

This “potential tropical cyclone” procedure allows the NHC to issue pre-war guards and warnings for an undeveloped system.

The NHC says this system is likely to develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday as it moves generally in a west-northwest direction. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be called Fred.


Current status, forecast path

(The red shaded area indicates the potential path of the center of the system. It is important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, heavy surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually go beyond its predicted path.)

Parts of the Lesser Antilles are confronted with gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms at least until Tuesday morning.

Local heavy rain and gusty winds then move over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday and over the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.

Up to six inches of rain could fall in these areas, triggering local flash floods and mudslides.

An uncertain future

Dry air, land interaction, and possibly increased wind shear could all be factors limiting this system’s ability to intensify later this week as it moves towards Hispaniola, Cuba, the southern Bahamas, and Florida.

Other of these negative factors, such as a trail over the rugged Hispaniola Mountains or more wind shear, could disperse the system. Fewer of these factors, such as a route that avoids much of the Caribbean islands, could result in a stronger “Fred”.

With all of the potential roadblocks outlined above, it’s too early to see what other implications there might be on Florida this weekend.

Regardless, it appears that at least one wave of moisture will hit Florida this weekend, wringing out more frequent, more concentrated areas of heavier rain than your more typical afternoon thunderstorms provide.

For now, interests from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and Florida should monitor its progress in the days ahead. Now is a good time to refresh or develop your hurricane plans.

Tropical activity usually picks up in August as we near the peak of the hurricane season, so it’s no surprise that there is an area where tropical development needs to be watched.

(MORE: Update for the Atlantic hurricane season outlook)

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